My View

My view

There is an increasing likelihood of war between Russia and the Ukraine. Several factors contribute to this analysis, the first being Russia lease on its naval base in Sevastopol is coming to an end and the Russians have indicated they must have a renewal of this lease, on top of which ethnic Russians are agitating in the Crimea for the lease to be extended, despite this the Ukrainians have indicated they will not extent the lease. Additionally Ukrainian elections are due early next year which will upset Russia if they turn out against Russia, Ukrainian nationalist are agitating against Russia and most importantly Ukraine feels under extreme threat of war from Russia and she feels the west will not help her. All this put together makes war about 70% likely, the war would involve Russia occupying all of the Crimea, devastating the Ukrainian armed forces and in effect turning the Ukraine into a client state of Russia.

This is not the suspires or the big issue the most important issue in this equation is how will the west react? We know the only reason Russia did not take Georgia apart piece by piece is because eventually the Americans deployed the fleet to the black sea, Russia, in other words backs down when shown the west is serious over her interests. But the west has been increasing reluctant to defend her interest east of Berlin and ironically this pull back makes Russia and other powers far more belligerent, or in short the fall back of the west makes war more likely.